Analyzing the Effects of Temporal Wind Patterns on the Value of Wind-Generated Electricity at Different Sites in California and the Northwest

• How large of an effect can the temporal variation of wind power have on the value of wind in different wind resource areas? • Which locations are affected most positively or negatively by the seasonal and diurnal timing of wind speeds? • How compatible are wind resources in the Pacific Northwest and California with wholesale power prices and loads in either region? • Can modeled/estimated wind data from AWS TrueWind help answer such questions? – TrueWind modeled wind-speed estimates (main emphasis) – Anemometer measurements (secondary emphasis) – Actual wind power production data (tertiary emphasis) Wind Value Metrics – Capacity factor during top 10% of historic (2000-04) peak load hours – Historic wholesale market value (historic PX prices [1998-99] and Mid-C hub prices [2002-05]) – Forecast wholesale market value Energy Analysis Department Temporal patterns of wind production have a moderate impact on the wholesale market value of wind power and a larger impact on the capacity factor during peak load hours – Wholesale Prices: Depending on the wind site, wholesale market values range from 11 percent below to 4 percent above the average wholesale-market spot price – Peak Load Hours: Depending on the wind site, power production during peak demand hours ranges from about 50 percent below to about 40 percent above the average during the year Value of wind power in wholesale spot markets in California and the Northwest is not substantially different from a flat block of power, and varies from one site to the next by at most ~15%; variation in expected production during the top 10% of peak load hours is substantially greater